09-01_bewareThe biggest scam in the world: sure-bet gambling systems.  The only people that believe they work are those who either ignore the science and math involved, or are the ones who are trying to sell it to you to make money off of you.

I was horrified that a casino website that is supposed to be a “news reporting and curating website” reporting on casino news specific to Massachusetts would include a post called “You Can Win Using Keno Queen’s Overlap System.”  Could this be another way of having more people bet more money to get the state of Massachusetts more gambler’s money for their coffers?

th (2)Keno is a simple game of luck, much like most lottery games, where the player chooses numbers and hope as many as possible match those randomly drawn by a hopper or machine. There are two formats for playing keno: live and video. In video keno, which is what the author is commenting about, the player touches a screen, sometimes using a wand, to pick numbers and the machine does the draw randomly.

According to the Wizard of Odds, “Like most games of pure luck, the odds in keno are pretty poor.”  Believe me when I tell you there aren’t many professional advantage Keno players out there unless they’re selling you something, because that’s the only way they’ll make money.!

th (3)Again quoting Michael Shackelford, the Wizard of Odds, “Not only do betting systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it.”

And from Patrick Billingsley, “No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise… — Probability and Measure(second edition, page 94)

Publishing an article such as that is irresponsible and caters to those who may actual believe it’s true – and even coaxing play past a person’s bankroll.

I suggest the “system” by the “Keno Queen” (interesting it’s anonymous) take on The Wizard of Odds Challenge.  This how Mr. Shackelford explains it: “For about six years, from 1999 to 2005, I offered $20,000 to anyone with a betting system that could show a profit over a one billion hand computer simulation. Here you can find the rules of the challenge. However, in all this time I only had one serious taker and hundreds of people wasting my time, pretending to be interested but never following through. So in January 2005, I took down the offer. My (new) webmaster, Michael Bluejay, now offers essentially the same challenge on his own site, VegasClick.com. If you accept his challenge, and win, I will be happy to state as such on the front page of this site, for proving the experts wrong.”

The reality is that no pattern of betting can effectively exploit the house edge. Keno Queen states “My Overlap System will work with any number combination that you choose, as long as you overlap your card plays so that you have numbers in common on cards….In my experience, Keno numbers have a tendency to hit in rows and columns, which is why I developed my system for playing the two columns on the far right of the board.”

The problem with this sub-par logic and self fulfilling observation is two-fold:

  1. Random Number Generator that choses the keno numbers has no pattern, so, because you cannot have a sure expectation of product, any system will eventually fail.
  2. The self-filling gambling prophecy – what you think you observe is influenced by what you are looking for.  You may be noticing that #1 “always” is picked on a particular machine, but without keeping track of all the numbers every time, you miss other numbers that just happen to be called.

th (4)Please, fellow gamblers, DO NOT BE FOOLED!  There is no such thing as a SURE BETTING SYSTEM.  Practice perfect strategy, manage your bankroll, and be aware of the mathematical influence of the game, especially if it involves a RNG. Unfortunately though, it won’t make up for all the losses in the long run, which is true for all betting systems you’ll find out there.  But if you want to try a system, feel free to do so. Just remember that it won’t change the house advantage. You’re chance of winning doesn’t improve, but it doesn’t decline either.

I will end with one more quote from the Wizard of Odds – “In the many years that (I have) run this site I have received thousands of e-mails from believers in betting systems. Their faith surpasses religious levels. However, in all things, the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Gamblers have been looking for a betting system that works for hundreds of years, and yet the casinos are still standing.

That’s all for now.

Binbin

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