Sports Betting has arrived in New England. Thousands of players have made bets in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. Here are 10 Tips for a Positive Sports Betting Experience and a chance to become a +EV Sports Bettor.
What is a “+EV” Sports Bettor?
So, what is the expected value, or EV? At its simplest, expected value in sports betting is a way to measure the probability gap between a bettor’s expectations — and the sportsbook’s. Oddsmakers assign their probability through betting lines, which bettors see assigned to any bet.
In short, for a sports bettor to be +EV, the probability of cashing on the bet is higher than the price at the book where you place the wager. Conversely, if your wager’s shot at hitting is less than what you need to break even, it’s a -EV.
10 Tips for a Positive Sports Betting Experience.
It’s fun to bet on a team because of a gut feeling, jersey colors, or liking the mascot. Players can rationalize whatever superstition or random event they use to justify a bet. However, it’s not a winning strategy to make money long-term.
Related Post – Beginner’s Guide To Sports Betting
#1 – Don’t Bet on Everyone’s Favorite Team.
Are you someone who follows the big franchises? Don’t buy into the general public’s favorite teams just because of years of championships. NFL teams such as the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, MLB’s New York Yankees and L.A. Dodgers, and the NBA’s Boston Celtics and L.A. Lakers received outsized attention from the media and sports fans.
The expression “What have you done for me lately?” should be considered. So, instead of following the crowd, +EV bettors should think if a favored team is a good value.
#2 – Don’t Necessarily Bet on The Home Team.
It’s thrilling to always bet on your home team as a loyal fan. But +EV bettors who want to make money don’t consider that. If you’re gambling with your heart, you aren’t considering the expected value. So, when placing a wager, it’s time to take off your jersey; bet on the one that gives you the best deal that day.
#3 – Rivalries May Be A Big Consideration
One of the most extraordinary things about sports is rivalry. Winning a bet driven by rivalries makes it even better. Therefore, if the sports line shows your favorite team is a big underdog against a rival, that could be the time to bet. I’m not saying your team is going to win. I’m just saying they may win against the spread.
#4 – Try Betting on Less Popular Leagues
You don’t have to bet the leagues everyone else is wagering on. The WNBA gets a fraction of the NFL’s handle, which means it gets a fraction of the bookmakers’ attention. That doesn’t mean they don’t have the time to make solid lines, but, in general, niche markets like women’s basketball, PGA golf betting, and professional rugby. The hype (and handle) surrounding popular sports all but forces books to make sure lines for their most bet-upon games are making them money.
#5 – Bet Against the Public – 10 Sports Betting Tips
What keeps Vegas in business is that the public often loses. So why not bet against the crowd?
Over the long haul of a season, the average Joe bettors give it back, along with most of their bankroll. Why? Because the average public bettors ignore betting analytics data. They bet for entertainment. They spend 5 minutes or less deciding on who to bet. Consider this: Wall Street investors are known to purchase stock when everyone else is selling. And sell stock when everyone else is buying.
#6 – Be Wary of Heavy Favorites – 10 Tips for a Positive Sports Betting Experience.
Betting underdogs is not always a good wager. Underdog’s cover point spreads just about as often as favorites. +EV bettors consider the value assigned to underdogs and favorites, then determine if they see a discrepancy in how they weigh the teams.
But people pay far more attention to teams at the top of their league than those at the bottom. That means underdogs can take away extra value if bettors take the time to weigh their worth.
#7 – The Coach Chokes Under Just the Right Circumstances
10 Tips for a Positive Sports Betting Experience wants you to consider the coaches. Some coaches are better than others, especially in big games. The coach of your favorite team may also have a similar tendency to do poorly in certain games. If you have proof (in other words, statistics or numbers that bear out such streaks), you could find a reason to bet on your favorite team. Just be careful. Eventually, these “choking” streaks tend to right themselves.
#8 – Ignore Media Hype
Sports media is paid to manipulate public perception, just like meteorologists sensationalize the weather. It’s especially true in baseball and football.
Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, made a fortune of over $84 billion and followed the 99/1 rule. So, do not overreact to news stories and headlines. Only listen to only 1 percent of the financial news you hear.
#9 – Consider Weather Conditions
Being a local means knowing the weather better than Vegas oddsmakers, which only counts for outdoor sports. Still, if the forecast around the beginning or middle of the week called for sunshine, but towards the end, things look like rain when your favorite team plays, you might have a reason to bet on them. But ensure that you’re reasonably sure that the weather will change and that the line hasn’t moved a few points since the weather reports started coming in.
#10 – The Best Bet is Usually No Bet.
The most essential 10 Tips for a Positive Sports Betting Experience concerns making that wager. Though bettors should consider the values of both favorites and underdogs, neither is worth a bet more often than not. For example, many bettors will try their luck on an NFL weekend at every game of the day. Therefore, a +EV bettor only bets on those for which he thinks there is a value.
Not making that bet is less “fun” than hoping to hit a 16-leg parlay, but it’s far less likely to make money than a few choice bets placed with value in mind.
And, just because you can bet on your favorite team does not mean you have to. You want to be sure that the bet you place has a reasonable chance of winning. If you’re not sure, you shouldn’t bet. For instance, if you’re from Florida, how easy is it to “know” that Tom Brady will throw for at least three touchdowns a game?
Consider all possibilities before making a bet. Then, if you do your homework and still lose, at least you can say it was an informative loss.
Next, I’ll dive into the world of parlays.